Coinlog

Ok, for the first time this cycle we have flipped negative on the weekly supertrend. I know a lot of other smart ppl were looking at similar levels for the weekly closes (be it 98k or 96k). To me this signals that the BTC bull market is over. This is a very significant change in trend and we would need a weekly close above 123k to invalidate it (this level will go down with time). I don't want to talk in absolutes but I'd say the probability it's over is >90%. This doesn't mean we won't get a relief bounce anymore, we often do after breaking trends. But it does mean I'll be way more selective if I buy anything (only good opportunities onchain and likely more down the line), I'm mostly in stables and I will look to short rallies I have no idea when this will end -techincally I'd say there's nothing stopping us from assuming it will last 1 year like the previous bears, so we could bottom Oct '26 (mid-terms in the US are around then), but we could also bottom before. There could be a lot of catalysts in March April, at least for a rally To be honest, there will still be plenty of opportunities imo even with the market going down and if you think about it, it's almost like we topped with the Trump inauguration - this year has been absolutely horrible if you stayed engaged, really good opportunities but also a lot of chop. So you could think that the bear market actually started 10 months ago Use this time to get better, explore other avenues as well, build your network, create content and reset mentally - the game always changes but it's still there

Link to tweet: https://x.com/Route2FI/status/1990127696941052266

could this be the bottom?

The Naval effect. (Fun fact: Naval was the reason I started my Twitter in 2019. Not because of crypto, but to find like minded people)

Saylor already escaped on his life boat on Friday

This weak price action and no news. A dead body (fund/MM) about to float the surface soon?

Many cases like this